Technical analysis pre-empts fundamental data

Fundamentalists believe there is a  cause and effect between  fundamental factors and price changes. This means, if the fundamental news is positive the price should rise, and if the news is negative the price should fall. However, long-term analyses of price changes in financial markets around the world show that such a correlation is present only in the  short-term horizon and only to a limited extend. It is non-existent on a medium- and long- term basis.

In fact, the contrary is true. The stock market itself is the best predictor of the future funda- mental trend. Most often, prices start rising in a new bull trend while the economy is still in  recession (position B on chart shown above), i.e. while there is no cause for such an  uptrend. Vice versa, prices start falling in a new bear trend while the economy is still  growing (position A), and not providing fundamental reasons to sell. There is a time-lag of  several months by which the fundamental trend follows the stock market trend. Moreover,
this is not only true for the stock market and the economy but also for the price trends of   individual equities and company earnings. Stock prices peak ahead of peak earnings while bottoming ahead of peak losses.

The purpose of technical analysis is to identify trend changes that precede the fundamen-  tal trend and do not (yet) make sense if compared to the concurrent fundamental trend. 

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Regional integration: ASEAN vision in 2020

Kuala Lumpur, 15 December 1997

We, the Heads of State/Government of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, gather today in Kuala Lumpur to reaffirm our commitment to the aims and purposes of the Association as set forth in the Bangkok Declaration of 8 August 1967, in particular to promote regional cooperation in Southeast Asia in the spirit of equality and partnership and thereby contribute towards peace, progress and prosperity in the region.

We in ASEAN have created a community of Southeast Asian nations at peace with one another and at peace with the world, rapidly achieving prosperity for our peoples and steadily improving their lives. Our rich diversity has provided the strength and inspiration to us to help one another foster a strong sense of community.

We are now a market of around 500 million people with a combined gross domestic product of US$600 billion. We have achieved considerable results in the economic field, such as high economic growth, stability and significant poverty alleviation over the past few years. Members have enjoyed substantial trade and investment flows from significant liberalisation measures.

We resolve  to  build  upon  these  achievements.

Now, as we approach the 21st century, thirty years after the birth of ASEAN, we gather to chart a vision for ASEAN on the basis of today's realities and prospects in the decades leading to the Year 2020.

That vision is of ASEAN as a concert of Southeast Asian nations, outward looking, living in peace, stability and prosperity, bonded together in partnership in dynamic development and in a community of caring societies.

A  Concert  of  Southeast  Asian  Nations

We envision the ASEAN region to be, in 2020, in full reality, a Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality, as envisaged in the Kuala Lumpur Declaration of 1971.




ASEAN shall have, by the year 2020, established a peaceful and stable Southeast Asia where each nation is at peace with itself and where the causes for conflict have been eliminated, through abiding respect for justice and the rule of law and through the strengthening of national and regional resilience.

We envision a Southeast Asia where territorial and other disputes are resolved by peaceful means.

We envision the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia functioning fully as a binding code of conduct for our governments and peoples, to which other states with interests in the region adhere.

We envision a Southeast Asia free from nuclear weapons, with all the Nuclear Weapon States committed to the purposes of the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone Treaty through their adherence to its Protocol. We also envision our region free from all other weapons of mass destruction.

We envision our rich human and natural resources contributing to our development and shared prosperity.

We envision the ASEAN Regional Forum as an established means for confidence-building and preventive diplomacy and for promoting conflict-resolution.

We envision a Southeast Asia where our mountains, rivers and seas no longer divide us but link us together in friendship, cooperation and commerce.

We see ASEAN as an effective force for peace, justice and moderation in the Asia-Pacific and in the world.

A  Partnership  in  Dynamic  Development

We resolve to chart a new direction towards the year 2020 called, ASEAN 2020 : Partnership in Dynamic Development which will forge closer economic integration within ASEAN.

We reiterate our resolve to enhance ASEAN economic cooperation through economic development strategies, which are in line with the aspiration of our respective peoples, which put emphasis on sustainable and equitable growth, and enhance national as well as regional resilience.

We pledge to sustain ASEAN's high economic performance by building upon the foundation of our existing cooperation efforts, consolidating our achievements, expanding our collective efforts and enhancing mutual assistance.



We commit ourselves to moving towards closer cohesion and economic integration, narrowing the gap in the level of development among Member Countries, ensuring that the multilateral trading system remains fair and open, and achieving global competitiveness.

We will create a stable, prosperous and highly competitive ASEAN Economic Region in which there is a free flow of goods, services and investments, a freer flow of capital, equitable economic development and reduced poverty and socio-economic disparities.

We resolve,  inter-alia,  to  undertake  the following:

•    maintain regional macroeconomic and financial stability by promoting closer consultations in macroeconomic and financial policies.

•    advance economic integration and cooperation by undertaking the following general strategies: fully implement the ASEAN Free Trade Area and accelerate liberalization of trade in services, realise the ASEAN Investment Area by 2010 and free flow of investments by 2020; intensify and expand sub-regional cooperation in existing and new sub-regional growth areas; further consolidate and expand extra-ASEAN regional linkages for mutual benefit cooperate to strengthen the multilateral trading system, and reinforce the role of the business sector as the engine of growth.

•    promote a modern and competitive small and medium enterprises (SME) sector in ASEAN which will contribute to the industrial development and efficiency of the region.

•    accelerate  the free  flow of  professional  and  other  services  in  the  region.

•    promote financial sector liberalisation and closer cooperation in money and capital market, tax, insurance and customs matters as well as closer consultations in macroeconomic and financial policies.

•    accelerate the development of science and technology including information technology by establishing a regional information technology network and centers of excellence for dissemination of and easy access to data and information.

•    establish interconnecting arrangements in the field of energy and utilities for electricity, natural gas and water within ASEAN through the ASEAN Power Grid and a Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline and Water Pipeline, and promote cooperation in energy efficiency and conservation, as well as the development of new and renewable energy resources.


•    enhance food security and international competitiveness of food, agricultural and forest products, to make ASEAN a leading producer of these products, and promote the forestry sector as a model in forest management, conservation and sustainable development.

•    meet the ever increasing demand for improved infrastructure and communications by developing an integrated and harmonized trans-ASEAN transportation network and harnessing technology advances in telecommunication and information technology, especially in linking the planned information highways/multimedia corridors in ASEAN, promoting open sky policy, developing multi-modal transport, facilitating goods in transit and integrating telecommunications networks through greater interconnectivity, coordination of frequencies and mutual recognition of equipment-type approval procedures.

•    enhance human resource development in all sectors of the economy through quality education, upgrading of skills and capabilities and training.

•    work towards a world class standards and conformance system that will provide a harmonised system to facilitate the free flow of ASEAN trade while meeting health, safety and environmental needs.

•    use the ASEAN Foundation as one of the instruments to address issues of unequal economic development, poverty and socioeconomic disparities.

•    promote an ASEAN customs partnership for world class standards and excellence in efficiency, professionalism and service, and uniformity through harmonised procedures, to promote trade and investment and to protect the health and well-being of the ASEAN community,

•    enhance intra-ASEAN trade and investment in the mineral sector and to contribute towards a technologically competent ASEAN through closer networking and sharing of information on mineral and geosciences as well as to enhance cooperation and partnership with dialogue partners to facilitate the development and transfer of technology in the mineral sector, particularly in the downstream research and the geosciences and to develop appropriate mechanism for these.

A    Community  of  Caring  Societies

We envision the entire Southeast Asia to be, by 2020, an ASEAN community conscious of its ties of history, aware of its cultural heritage and bound by a common regional identity.




We see vibrant and open ASEAN societies consistent with their respective national identities, where all people enjoy equitable access to opportunities for total human development regardless of gender, race, religion, language, or social and cultural background.

We envision a socially cohesive and caring ASEAN where hunger, malnutrition, deprivation and poverty are no longer basic problems, where strong families as the basic units of society tend to their members particularly the children, youth, women and elderly; and where the civil society is empowered and gives special attention to the disadvantaged, disabled and marginalized and where social justice and the rule of law reign.

We see well before 2020 a Southeast Asia free of illicit drugs, free of their production, processing, trafficking and use.

We envision a technologically competitive ASEAN competent in strategic and enabling technologies, with an adequate pool of technologically qualified and trained manpower, and strong networks of scientific and technological institutions and centers of excellence.

We envision a clean and green ASEAN with fully established mechanisms for sustainable development to ensure the protection of the region's environment, the sustainability of its natural resources, and the high quality of life of its peoples.

We envision the evolution in Southeast Asia of agreed rules of behaviour and cooperative measures to deal with problems that can be met only on a regional scale, including environmental pollution and degradation, drug trafficking, trafficking in women and children, and other transnational crimes.

We envision our nations being governed with the consent and greater participation of the people with its focus on the welfare and dignity of the human person and the good of the community.

We resolve to develop and strengthen ASEAN's institutions and mechanisms to enable ASEAN to realize the vision and respond to the challenges of the coming century. We also see the need for a strengthened ASEAN Secretariat with an enhanced role to support the realization of our vision.

An  Outward-Looking  ASEAN

We see an outward-looking ASEAN playing a pivotal role in the international fora, and advancing ASEAN's common interests. We envision ASEAN having an intensified



relationship with its Dialogue Partners and other regional organisations based on equal partnership and mutual respect.

Conclusion

We pledge to our peoples our determination and commitment to bringing this ASEAN Vision for the Year 2020 into reality.

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What is Pair Trading and how to Pair trading works and Is Pair Trading right for you?

 What is Pair Trading?

Pair trading, also known as statistical arbitrage or spread trading, is a strategy that allows the trader to capture anomalies, relative strength or even fundamental differences on two stocks or baskets while maintaining a market neutral position. This powerful trading strategy once used only by large institutional investors and hedge funds has been adapted for implementation in your taxable trading accounts. Market neutrality has never been more important, as it allows the trader to capture profits in up, down, or sideways markets while giving you the freedom from having to predict the direction of the overall market.


The key to the strategy is simply finding correlated stocks (preferably NYSE mid and large capitalized stocks), exploiting the times when they diverge from their correlation, following simple rules of entry and exit, and having a disciplined money management system in place.

When pair trading, you’re usually trading two correlated stocks;  sell short one stock while simultaneously buying the other. You’ve then “hedged” yourself to the market and therefore the market is free to do what it wants. If the market goes down, your short position should make money. If it goes up, your long position should make money. Of course, while each side of your trade is making money, there’s the other side that is losing money. However, that’s the key to pairs…you can be in a pair while the market is moving quickly and your pair price can barely move 50 cents. Why is this beneficial? The pair helps curb the price action and increases the predictability of the action.

In other words, the pair of the two stocks creates tighter, more predictable ranges for the trader to trade. It’s then your job as the trader to wait for the time when one of the stocks jumps out of it’s normal correlation and play for the pair to come back to normal, or to occasionally trade toward the convergence.

Below is another example of the type of action that a spread gives you as it forms great support and resistance levels and develops a nice range.

 How to Pair trading works:

 Pair trading works by purchasing a stock and simultaneously selling short the stock of a second correlated so exciting couple of trade when relations between the two stocks has returned to its mean. It was a very active exchange by professional traders and hedge funds worldwide for decades.

We will give an example using coke stocks (ticker: KO) and PepsiCo (ticker: PEP). As you know, it is two very similar because they both operate in the same markets and sell the same products, soft drinks. For two KO and PEP are exposed to the same macroeconomic conditions and industry, their stock prices are measured at similar assessments of the market. That they will act with similar price / earnings and other valuation metrics. If you place a stock chart of KO, PEP and overlay on top, you will see that the two stock prices move in a very similar pattern over time.

From time to time, share prices that differ from each other. This is a pair trading opportunity, with the idea that buying and selling shares in the open reduced the population has increased, and the output once the relationship between populations correlated returns to normal. It is also known as mean reversion, statistical arbitrage, trading or market neutral long / short.

When you use a couple of trading, you must make sure that you do two similar stocks other examples of pairs of stocks are correlated Dell vs. IBM, Google and Yahoo and eBay vs. Amazon vs.. Ensure that commercial software shows you the relationship between the two corresponding populations are more than 70%, with a really good pair of over 90% correlation. Always having an equal share of your account in the long and short positions, this will keep your portfolio market-neutral, it is you are not exposed to fluctuations in the consumer market in ways that build on the relationship between the two Stocks correlation, not direct effect on the market, which is significantly reducing your risk and allows you to safely increase your negotiating leverage.

Since 1000 there is a store there for a couple of exchanges, it is impossible to calculate all the correlation values with the hand or spreadsheet, you will need a couple of trading software is to find the right equipment and pairs adds them to the checklist is to inform the trading signals. After downloading the list of titles for my pair of commercial software, it is therefore necessary to find the highest correlation between pairs of images of running back to the test. Once you find a list of pairs of stock for more than 70% agreement, add them to your watch, so it can inform trading signals, buy and sell stocks, wait a couple of returns to the average the signal.

Only you can answer this question. The PairTrader.com founders and many others like them have chosen this method of trading over traditional momentum based trading strategies for various reasons. Some investors may even use these techniques to profit from the differential between an overvalued stock and an undervalued stock while remaining for the most part market neutral. If you have been looking for answers inthese difficult and unpredictable market conditions read the personal experience of Rob.

Is Pair Trading right for you?

Rob Friesen's Experience:

I was introduced to the markets through a friend in the mid 80’s as he instructed me how to read the stock tables in the newspaper and showed me some of his gains made through investing. It wasn’t until 1993 that a different friend who now trades with Bright Trading in Langley, B.C. recommended that I get into a penny stock he had discovered. I had to open a retail account, funded it and then proceeded to buy the stock on a day that it had a fabulous news release. The stock went down and down and down some more. After losing half my money, I vowed to continue with this stock market thing until I found out what happened to my money.  At this point I hadn’t heard the adage “buy rumor, sell news” but was soon to learn that and more.

I continued to play around with penny stocks for a few years moving from a full service brokerage account to a discount broker. As I traded more frequently, the commissions were eating up any profits.  During this time I ran a number of businesses. I had a flow- through contract with the Municipality for the collection of recyclables, which I maintained for 8 years. I also started a communications company in Alberta, Canada and Washington State. I purchased a Bottled Water franchise that I expanded and resold. I also stabbed at other businesses and investments in search of the “perfect business”.

As I talked with family and friends about the businesses I was in, and also about stocks and trading I became aware of my career passion. Every time I had opportunity to chat about what I was experiencing and learning in the market, my eyes brightened and I felt alive. When In 1997 I discovered Bright Trading through their website: www.stocktrading.com.  I recognized an opportunity for a viable career and the type of business I had been searching for. I started with Bright Trading as an off-floor trader on January 10, 1998.

I struggled greatly in those first years, what could be called the greatest Bull market in history, as I wasn’t used to market volatility and to trading against so many professionals on very pricey and high beta stocks. I was trying to learn to read the tape and trade momentum, but became a chaser of the action. It wasn’t a great time to be learning in but would have been fantastic if one was skilled prior to the bubble.

On August 10, 1998 I opened the Seattle Downtown office for Bright Trading and proceeded to work with many new traders who came from regular jobs and businesses, not from the industry. I enjoyed working with very new traders as they were teachable, and simply passed on the things I was learning. Unfortunately for many of them, the momentum strategy was hard to learn and presented great risk, as they were naked in the market without a hedging instrument. I spent 1-½ years in Seattle before it was time to bring that season to a close and spend more time with my family. I had been commuting 2 ½ -3 hours, and most of the time staying in Seattle during the week and coming back to my home in Langley, BC for the weekends. It was a hard 1-½ years with much sacrifice. I pressed on, as I believe that if a person does what they love, they will find fulfillment and the money will come.

In January of 2000, I started trading out of my home in Langley. BC and by June had 4 traders in my 650 sq ft. garage that I had renovated. By November of that year I had 8 traders and a receptionist in my garage. By Christmas of that year I opened an 1850 sq ft office in Langley, near my home. The decision I had made before undertaking the building of another office after Seattle was that I was going to do everything in my power to assist new traders with an appropriate trading model, I'd try to retain them and also help them be profitable. It was because of this desire that I undertook learning how to spread trade. This was a strategy that I had heard about that allowed the trader to be market neutral, which I could see as a big help to assisting the newer trader in not feeling vulnerable and exposed to the volatility of the market. I proceeded to learn it and teach it to my traders in a grass roots developing office in my garage.

The results were fantastic and better than I could have hoped as people completely unfamiliar with the markets grasped the techniques, and ground out consistent profits daily. This was exactly what was needed as these guys left regular jobs and needed to pull a paycheck from the market. My first focus was on Risk Arbitrage (Mergers), then adding Statistical Arbitrage (Pairs) in February of 2001. My first outside student had his trading career restored and revitalized when he came to Langley for mentoring in September 2000. That started a stampede of momentum traders looking for help as their game had changed and the need for new strategies was urgent. Since that time I have trained over 65 traders. Many of them are doing well and some have become the best performing traders in their respective offices. Steve Slavin came to me in for training in October 2001 and in April 2002 we decided to join forces in developing tools, educating and assisting traders.

Please enjoy what our combined experience and work has produced for you in this training manual and do not hesitate to benefit from the other tools such as the website and software that we have developed for you. Please note that all these tools were originally developed for the spread traders in the Langley Bright Trading office and were necessary, as they did not exist in the trading community. As traders came to the Langley office for mentoring, they asked how they might get tools for themselves. We proceeded to convert all of our internal data to the web that now can be accessed by anyone with access to the Internet. A users manual was written for the software and all processes streamlined for customer convenience.

I struggled greatly in those first years, what could be called the greatest Bull market in history, as I wasn’t used to market volatility and to trading against so many professionals on very pricey and high beta stocks. I was trying to learn to read the tape and trade momentum, but became a chaser of the action. It wasn’t a great time to be learning in but would have been fantastic if one was skilled prior to the bubble.

On August 10, 1998 I opened the Seattle Downtown office for Bright Trading and proceeded to work with many new traders who came from regular jobs and businesses, not from the industry. I enjoyed working with very new traders as they were teachable, and simply passed on the things I was learning. Unfortunately for many of them, the momentum strategy was hard to learn and presented great risk, as they were naked in the market without a hedging instrument. I spent 1-½ years in Seattle before it was time to bring that season to a close and spend more time with my family. I had been commuting 2 ½ -3 hours, and most of the time staying in Seattle during the week and coming back to my home in Langley, BC for the weekends. It was a hard 1-½ years with much sacrifice. I pressed on, as I believe that if a person does what they love, they will find fulfillment and the money will come.

In January of 2000, I started trading out of my home in Langley. BC and by June had 4 traders in my 650 sq ft. garage that I had renovated. By November of that year I had 8 traders and a receptionist in my garage. By Christmas of that year I opened an 1850 sq ft office in Langley, near my home. The decision I had made before undertaking the building of another office after Seattle was that I was going to do everything in my power to assist new traders with an appropriate trading model, I'd try to retain them and also help them be profitable. It was because of this desire that I undertook learning how to spread trade. This was a strategy that I had heard about that allowed the trader to be market neutral, which I could see as a big help to assisting the newer trader in not feeling vulnerable and exposed to the volatility of the market. I proceeded to learn it and teach it to my traders in a grass roots developing office in my garage.

The results were fantastic and better than I could have hoped as people completely unfamiliar with the markets grasped the techniques, and ground out consistent profits daily. This was exactly what was needed as these guys left regular jobs and needed to pull a paycheck from the market. My first focus was on Risk Arbitrage (Mergers), then adding Statistical Arbitrage (Pairs) in February of 2001. My first outside student had his trading career restored and revitalized when he came to Langley for mentoring in September 2000. That started a stampede of momentum traders looking for help as their game had changed and the need for new strategies was urgent. Since that time I have trained over 65 traders. Many of them are doing well and some have become the best performing traders in their respective offices. Steve Slavin came to me in for training in October 2001 and in April 2002 we decided to join forces in developing tools, educating and assisting traders.

Please enjoy what our combined experience and work has produced for you in this training manual and do not hesitate to benefit from the other tools such as the website and software that we have developed for you. Please note that all these tools were originally developed for the spread traders in the Langley Bright Trading office and were necessary, as they did not exist in the trading community. As traders came to the Langley office for mentoring, they asked how they might get tools for themselves. We proceeded to convert all of our internal data to the web that now can be accessed by anyone with access to the Internet. A users manual was written for the software and all processes streamlined for customer convenience.

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Trading Stocks Technically!

Trading Stocks Technically!

Many people are still skeptical in relation to technical analysis. I would try to make them understand how it was possible to make good returns from using a technical approach. Many people still swear by fundamentals and completely either ignore charts or don’t understand charts.

However it is very hard change people’s beliefs. Once someone has created a set of beliefs about something they will continue to filter all information to confirm their belief. There are many beliefs about the stock market. No one is exactly sure what the stock market is doing or how to make money from it consistently. We all have to come to our own understanding of what it is and do the best we can from there.

Software makes it easier for you. The computer no rights in the process to advise on the purchase or sale of shares. There are 100% without human intervention a day at the inflection of the action. This is done by computer using advanced real-time data acquisition and processing technology which leads to the logical owners of artificial intelligence developed over years of treatment and analysis of stock market data and market data worldwide financial. Thus, the new Cyber-World We will overcome fear and greed. Computer tells you what to buy! Just when you get the sale! Remember this benefit; do not let this feeling of greed or fear take over you. Act now.

All you need to know is which Scrip to choose, when to play the Scrip and the incorrect or outdated research or information. Computers make the process real-time financial information from various sources and according to our proprietary artificial intelligence logic, get these tips from the negotiation. It saves time and keep you informed of current trading day through SMS on your mobile phone. After following through the rise of the trading price of the certificates will be monitored and calls in response to not buy or sell the certificates are sent to your mobile phone through SMS as soon as possible. You must keep a record of your earnings and profitability reach any square satisfactory level of position. You can create very large turnover margin trading each day this way and create large cash surplus or profit at the end of the trading session and hold a minimum of risk and maximize the intra-day trading profits. Earn money every day. Bring your financial life in order. Learn how to make money from money every minute and every day.

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BASIC CANDLESTICK CHARTING

The Japanese developed a method of technical analysis to analyze the price of rice contracts. This technique is called candlestick charting. Steven Nison is credited with popularizing candlestick charting and has become recognized as the leading expert on their interpretation.

What do Candlesticks Look Like?

Candlestick charts are much more visually appealing than a standard two-dimensional bar
chart. As in a standard bar chart, there are four elements necessary to construct a
candlestick chart, the OPEN, HIGH, LOW and CLOSING price for a given time period.
 Below are examples of candlesticks and a definition for each candlestick component:

 

The body of the candlestick is called the real body, and represents the range between

the open and closing prices.

A black or filled-in body represents that the close during that time period was lower than the open, (normally considered bearish) and when the body is open or white, that means the close was higher than the open (normally bullish).The thin vertical line above and/or below the real body is called the upper/lower shadow, representing the high/low price extremes for the period.

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Andrews' Pitchfork_Technical Method

Andrews' Pitchfork

Developed by Alan Andrews, Andrews' Pitchfork is a trend channel tool consisting of three lines.

A technical indicator that uses three parallel trend lines to identify possible levels of support and resistance. The trend lines are created by placing three points at the end of identified trends. This is usually achieved by placing the points in three consecutive peaks or troughs. Once the points have been placed, a straight line is drawn from the first point that intersects the midpoint of the other two.

Andrews' Pitchfork

There is a median trendline in the center with two parallel equidistant trendlines on either side. These lines are drawn by selecting three points, usually based on reaction highs or lows moving from left to right on the chart. As with normal trendlines and channels, the outside trendlines mark potential support and resistance areas. A trend remains in place as long as the Pitchfork channel holds. Reversals occur when prices break out of a Pitchfork channel.

Picking Three Points

The first step to using Andrews Pitchfork is selecting three points for drawing. These points are usually based on reaction highs or reaction lows, also referred to as pivot points.The first point selected marks the start of the median line. Points 2 and 3 define the width of the Pitchfork channel. The median line is based on two points: point 1 and the midpoint between points 2 and 3. As such, the median line starts a point 1 and bisects points 2 and 3. This controls the slope (steepness) of the median line. The outside trendlines are then extended parallel to the median line. The red Andrews' Pitchfork shows an alternative median line based on the July low for point 1. Notice that the red median line still bisects the line between points 2 and 3, but it is steeper than the blue median line. Pitchfork slope depends on the placement of point 1.

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How To Use Support and Resistance Levels

The recognition of support and resistance levels on a stock chart is an integral part of technical analysis. The concepts are simple but very important.

What is support?

“Support” is a level on a stock chart that represents a zone where buyers won’t allow the price to go any lower. Of course the price can always go lower, there are no absolute certainties in the stock market, but the probabilities aren’t in favor of the price breaking below a support level. If a support level is broken then perhaps the trend is changing to the downside.

Keep in mind that the markets work on “supply” and “demand”. When demand exceeds supply, prices go up. When supply exceeds demand, prices go down.

So, support levels occur where buyers are stronger than sellers.

support:

The stock chart above displays a support level at approximately $1.25. The breakdown below that support level that occurred in May 2010 resulted in the stock price moving lower.

What is resistance?

“Resistance” is a level on a stock chart where prices have trouble breaking through. If the stock does eventually break through a resistance level it’s a bullish sign.

resistance:
In the stock chart above the resistance level is located at approximately $11. The breakout above this resistance lead to a profitable rally.

What makes a support or resistance level valid?

The more times a support or resistance line is touched by price, the more valid it is. Also, the longer the level has existed, the more valid it is.

Breakouts above valid resistance levels are significant events. They are a bullish sign indicating the likelihood of the stock price moving higher.

Similarly, breakdowns below support levels are significant events. They are a bearish sign indicating the likelihood of the stock price moving lower.

How can a knowledge of support and resistance levels benefit you as a trader?

If you can identify valid support and resistance levels on a stock chart, you are able to make trading decisions based on better than average probabilities.

Careful analysis of any stock chart will reveal that support and resistance levels define the trend. A trend is made up of peaks and troughs, of which support and resistance levels form an integral part.

The identification of support and resistance levels when studied alongside the dominant trend of a stock can give you a valuable clue as to the stock’s likely next movements.

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Winning Trading Plan Or Good trading plan

There is an old saying in business: "Fail to plan and you plan to fail." It may sound glib, but those who are serious about being successful, including traders, should follow these eight words as if they were written in stone. Ask any trader who makes money on a consistent basis and they will tell you, "You have two choices: you can either methodically follow a written plan, or fail."

If you have a written trading or investment plan, congratulations! You are in the minority. While it is still no absolute guarantee of success, you have eliminated one major roadblock. If your plan uses flawed techniques or lacks preparation, your success won't come immediately, but at least you are in a position to chart and modify your course. By documenting the process, you learn what works and how to avoid repeating costly mistakes.

Once a trader knows where the market has the potential to pause or reverse, they must then determine which one it will be and act accordingly. A plan should be written in stone while you are trading, but subject to re-evaluation once the market has closed. It changes with market conditions and adjusts as the trader's skill level improves. Each trader should write their own plan, taking into account personal trading styles and goals. Using someone else's plan does not reflect your trading characteristics.

Building the Perfect Master Plan

What are the components of a good trading plan?
 Here are 10 essentials that every plan should include:

Skill Assessment

Are you ready to trade? Have you tested your system by paper trading it and do you have confidence that it works? Can you follow your signals without hesitation? Trading in the markets is a battle of give and take. The real pros are prepared and they take their profits from the rest of the crowd who, lacking a plan, give their money away through costly mistakes.

Mental Preparation

How do you feel? Did you get a good night's sleep? Do you feel up to the challenge ahead? If you are not emotionally and psychologically ready to do battle in the markets, it is better to take the day off - otherwise, you risk losing your shirt. This is guaranteed to happen if you are angry, hungover, preoccupied or otherwise distracted from the task at hand. Many traders have a market mantra they repeat before the day begins to get them ready. Create one that puts you in the trading zone.

Set Risk Level

How much of your portfolio should you risk on any one trade? It can range anywhere from around 1% to as much as 5% of your portfolio on a given trading day. That means if you lose that amount at any point in the day, you get out and stay out. This will depend on your trading style and risk tolerance. Better to keep powder dry to fight another day if things aren't going your way. (To learn more, see Matching Investing Risk Tolerance To Personality.)

Set Goals

Before you enter a trade, set realistic profit targets and risk/reward ratios. What is the minimum risk/reward you will accept? Many traders will not take a trade unless the potential profit is at least three times greater than the risk. For example, if your stop loss is a dollar loss per share, your goal should be a $3 profit. Set weekly, monthly and annual profit goals in dollars or as a percentage of your portfolio, and re-assess them regularly. (For more information, see Calculating Risk And Reward.)

Do Your Homework

Before the market opens, what is going on around the world? Are overseas markets up or down? Are index futures such as the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 exchange-traded funds up or down in pre-market? Index futures are a good way of gauging market mood before the market opens. What economic or earnings data is due out and when? Post a list on the wall in front of you and decide whether you want to trade ahead of an important economic report. For most traders, it is better to wait until the report is released than take unnecessary risk. Pros trade based on probabilities. They don't gamble.

Trade Preparation

Before the trading day, reboot your computer(s) to clear the resident memory (RAM). Whatever trading system and program you use, label major and minor support and resistance levels, set alerts for entry and exit signals and make sure all signals can be easily seen or detected with a clear visual or auditory signal. Your trading area should not offer distractions. Remember, this is a business, and distractions can be costly.

Set Exit Rules
Most traders make the mistake of concentrating 90% or more of their efforts in looking for buy signals, but pay very little attention to when and where to exit. Many traders cannot sell if they are down because they don't want to take a loss. Get over it or you will not make it as a trader. If your stop gets hit, it means you were wrong. Don't take it personally. Professional traders lose more trades than they win, but by managing money and limiting losses, they still end up making profits.

Before you enter a trade, you should know where your exits are. There are at least two for every trade. First, what is your stop loss if the trade goes against you? It must be written down. Mental stops don't count. Second, each trade should have a profit target. Once you get there, sell a portion of your position and you can move your stop loss on the rest of your position to break even if you wish. As discussed above, never risk more than a set percentage of your portfolio on any trade.

Set Entry Rules

This comes after the tips for exit rules for a reason: exits are far more important than entries. A typical entry rule could be worded like this: "If signal A fires and there is a minimum target at least three times as great as my stop loss and we are at support, then buy X contracts or shares here." Your system should be complicated enough to be effective, but simple enough to facilitate snap decisions. If you have 20 conditions that must be met and many are subjective, you will find it difficult if not impossible to actually make trades. Computers often make better traders than people, which may explain why nearly 50% of all trades that now occur on the New York Stock Exchange are computer-program generated. Computers don't have to think or feel good to make a trade. If conditions are met, they enter. When the trade goes the wrong way or hits a profit target, they exit. They don't get angry at the market or feel invincible after making a few good trades. Each decision is based on probabilities.

Keep Excellent Records

All good traders are also good record keepers. If they win a trade, they want to know exactly why and how. More importantly, they want to know the same when they lose, so they don't repeat unnecessary mistakes. Write down details such as targets, the entry and exit of each trade, the time, support and resistance levels, daily opening range, market open and close for the day and record comments about why you made the trade and lessons learned. Also, you should save your trading records so that you can go back and analyze the profit or loss for a particular system, draw-downs (which are amounts lost per trade using a trading system), average time per trade (which is necessary to calculate trade efficiency) and other important factors, and also compare them to a buy-and-hold strategy. Remember, this is a business and you are the accountant.

Perform a Post-Mortem

After each trading day, adding up the profit or loss is secondary to knowing the why and how. Write down your conclusions in your trading journal so that you can reference them again later.

The Bottom Line
Successful paper trading does not guarantee that you will have success when you begin trading real money and emotions come into play. But successful paper trading does give the trader confidence that the system they are going to use actually works. Deciding on a system is less important than gaining enough skill so that you are able to make trades without second guessing or doubting the decision.

There is no way to guarantee that a trade will make money. The trader's chances are based on their skill and system of winning and losing. There is no such thing as winning without losing. Professional traders know before they enter a trade that the odds are in their favor or they wouldn't be there. By letting their profits ride and cutting losses short, a trader may lose some battles, but they will win the war. Most traders and investors do the opposite, which is why they never make money.

Traders who win consistently treat trading as a business. While it's not a guarantee that you will make money, having a plan is crucial if you want to become consistently successful and survive in the trading game.

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INDIAN GEMS AND JEWELLERY INDUSTRY SCENARIO

INDIAN GEMS AND JEWELLERY INDUSTRY SCENARIO

 India has a glorious historical past in diamonds and has revived the past tradition in the sixties when she entered the fray as a manufacturer exporter of cut and polished diamonds, and later on jewellery as well. After spending initial years in establishing the industry in a defined global market place, India established herself among the top manufacturer and exporter of cut and polished diamonds.  The main reason among others for her excellent growth is attributed to India's skills in converting small diamonds which had so far been discarded as uncuttable into gems.  Further India's advantage is its cheap labour, which gives a comparative price advantage.

 Today the gems and jewellery industry is India's second largest

 foreign exchange earner.

Suashish Jewellery Ltd

Listing Agreements:              Listing agreements entered into by the Company with BSE.

Suashish   Diamonds   Limited   is   a   public   limited  company   incorporated   on October   05,   1988   under   the  Companies Act, 1956    having its registered and corporate office at Mehta Mahal, 11th Floor, 15 Mathew   Road, Opera House, Mumbai 400 004, India.

Promoted by Rameshkumar S Goenka, Suashish Diamonds (SDL) was incorporated in Oct.'88 which imports rough diamonds, cuts and polishes them, and then exports them. Its clientele is spread across the US, Japan, Europe, east Asia and Israel. It is a privileged sight holder of the Diamond Trading Company (DTC), London, whereby it enjoys an uninterrupted supply of raw materials at competitive rates. SDL has been granted Star Trading House status under the export-import policy of the Government of India. It has established a 100% subsidiary  Suashish Diamonds  in Hong Kong. In Jan.'95, SDL came out with a public issue at a premium of Rs. 185, aggregating Rs.113.37 Cr, to set up three diamond cutting and manufacturing units at Ahmedabad; set up a laser processing unit; acquire premises; invest in a subsidiary company and to augment long-term working capital requirements. The total project cost was estimated at Rs.124.51 cr. The company bagged the prestigious award by Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council, as the second largest exported of Cut & Polished Diamonds for the year 1998-99 and certificate of merit for outstanding performance in the field of exports of cut & polished diamonds from the Govt. of Maharashtra for the same year. There are 9 subsidiary companies including 3 foreign subsidiaries at the end of financial year 2003-04. Suashish Jewellery Ltd has ceased to be a subsidiary of the company with effect from 07.01.2005.

 Net Foreign Exchange earnings of Gem & Jewellery

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Year                                                       Net Earning i.e. excess of

                                                               exports over imports

                                                                    (Rs. in Crore)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1984-85                                                                                     353.40                      

1985-86                                                                                     369.80                      

1986-87                                                                                     607.40                      

1987-88                                                                                     557.20                      

1988-89                                                                                     1261.10                    

1989-90                                                                                     1078.90                    

1990-91                                                                                     1420.60                    

1991-92                                                                                     1838.90                    

1992-93                                                                                     2045.80                    

1993-94                                                                                     4131.14                                             --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 During the year ended March 1994, Indian exports soared to US $

 4139.26 million - 27% higher than the previous year 1992-93 despite

 the fact that the world has witnessed a recession in the diamond

 industry during the same period.  The average price realisation was

 US $ 260 per carat. During the same period i.e. 1993-94 import of

 rough diamonds increased by 16% over the previous year to US $

 2793.52 million.

 GROWTH

 The export of cut and polished diamonds and the growth rate during

 last 10 years are given in the following table

 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Year                                 Growth over                              Export Diamonds
                                                                                         (Rs. In Crores)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 1984-85                              -                                            1172.08     

 1985-86                              + 14.7 %                               1344.25

 1986-87                             + 45.8 %                               1959.73     

 1987-88                             + 24.5 %                                2439.74     

 1988-89                             + 73.7 %                                4238.18     

 1989-90                             + 17.3 %                                4971.93

 1990-91                             -  4.7 %                                  4738.71                

 1991-92                            + 30.0 %                                 6162.64

 1992-93                            + 34.9 %                                  8316.15

 1993-94                            + 37.2 %                                11409.89                            

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 The Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of the Indian industry's export of cut and polished diamonds over last 9 years i.e. from 1985-86 to 1993-94 works out to 28.77% p.a. and in the last 3 years i.e. from 1991-92 to 1993-94 it was 34.03% p.a.

 PRESENT BUSINESS

 At present, the Company buys 'Roughs' mainly from DTC and contracts out for cutting and polishing. The entire cut and polished diamonds are then exported to clients all over the world and in particular, to Hong Kong, U.S.A., Japan and Belgium. During the year 1993-94, the laser processing unit of the Company commenced its operations.

 Suashish Diamdeal (India) Limited (SDIL) Suashish Diamdeal (India) Ltd. is a 100% subsidiary company of Suashish Diamonds Limited. It was incorporated as a public limited company on 18th September, 1992 and has become a 100% subsidiary company of Suashish Diamonds Ltd. with effect from 24th May, 1993.The Company has commenced business operations in 1994-95. During the first 5 months ended August '94, the Company has made export of diamonds for Rs. 75.6 lacs apart from local sales of imported gold for Rs. 363.5 lacs. The Company has been issued a bulk licence under the Exim Policy of US,759,588.

 The financial highlights of the subsidiary company are as follows:

 The main objects of the subsidiary company to be purused are

 1.  To act as importers, exporters, manufacturers, processors, wholesalers, distributors, retailers, dealers and indenting agents of diamonds, synthetic stones, gems & jewellery precious and semi-precious stones.

 2.  To carry on, conduct, manage and administer the business of refining, boiling, processing, assorting, cleaning, classifying, clifting, blocking, polishing, preparing, chiselling, kerfing, cleaving, sawing, drilling, bruting through laser or other process cut or uncut coarse and or polished gems, diamonds including industrial diamonds.

 b) Suashish Jewellery Exports Limited (SJEL)  SJEL was incorporated on 28th October, 1992 to act as importers, exporters, manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors, retailers, dealers and indenting agents of jewellery, studded gold jewellery plain gold jewellery gems, diamonds, synthetic stones, precious and semi- precious stones. SJEL has become a subsidiary of SDL from 24th October, 1994. SJEL is setting up a jewellery manufacturing unit at Santacruz Electronics Export Processing Zone. The Company has not commenced commercial production till 31st August, 1994.

 c)        Suashish Diamonds (Hong Kong) Ltd. - Proposed subsidiary  The above Company has been incorporated on 23rd June, 1994 at Hong Kong and the proposed investment by SDL in the shares of the above Company is yet to be made. There is no holding company of Suashish Diamonds Ltd.

 2009 - Suashish Diamonds Ltd has informed that Mr. Mayank Pramodchandra Bajaj has been co-opted as an Additional Director of the Company with effect from June 25, 2009 by means of Circular Resolution passed by the Board of Directors of the Company. Mr. Bajaj shall act as Non-executive and Independent Director of the Company.

NSE:

Listed On                 :16:May:1995

Issue price                : 155

Face Value                : 10

Life time High          :200       7-Jun-95

Life time Low           :12.75    25-Sep-01

  

 Delisted On:

Jan 17,2002  Open16.00  LTP 16.00  Day's Range   16.00 16.45

BSE :

Incorporation Date                  : 05/10/1988

Public Issue Date                    : 27/01/1995

Book Closure Start Date         :23/09/2010

Book Closure End Date          : 29/09/2010

Face Value                              :10.0

Issue price                               : Rs. 185

Market Lot Of Equity Shares  :1

BSE Code                              :526733

BSE Group                            : B

Life time High        : 480   26-Aug-08

Life time Low         : 14     4-Oct-01

Share holders:

(in %)   Dec-10            Sep-10 Jun-10

Promoter          89.43   89.43   89.43

FII       --         --         --

DII       3.56     3.85     3.92

Others  7.01     6.72     6.65

Total    100.00 100.00 100.00

DIVIDEND

04/08/200818/09/2008                        Final18.75%                  54*1.87=100.98

08/03/200721/03/2007                        Interim15%                    54*1.50=081.00

07/04/200622/06/2006                        Final15%                        54*1.50=081.00

07/03/200517/06/2005                        Final15%                          54*1.50=081.00

03/07/2001                                          Final5%                            54*1.50=081.00

11/09/2001                                          Final5%                             54*1.50=081.00

18/04/2000                                          Interim10%                       54*1.00=054.00

18/06/1999                                          Final15%                          54*1.50=081.00

06/1998                                               Final15%                          54*1.50=081.00

                                                                                                          Total=721.98

Share Return:

BSE:

Assumed investment: Rs.10000.

Investment initiated on 1995.

Rs. 10000 worth of shares: 54(Per share Rs.185, 10000/155=54)

As on  28 Feb 2011  return of investment Rs.138.30

(as on 28 Feb 2011 Market price)*54shares=7468.2+721.98(dividend)=8190.18.

Same time Rs.10000 investment in gold.

As on 1995 gold price is Rs.32.43per grm, Rs.10000 worth of gold:308.35(Per grm gold 32.43,10000/32.43=308.35grm rounded of 308)

Return as on  2011 gold price is 1900 per grm (as on feb 2011 market gold price 1900 Per grm)308grm*1900=585200.

GOLD CHART

1994

1995-2010

2011

        

           Asian Star Company Ltd

1971

Asian Star Company was registered as a partnership firm in by the Shah family and Kothari family. The Promoters of the Company are the partners of the erstwhile firm, Asian Star Company and hail from North Gujarat.

- The company has processing facilities at Thala, Mandvi and Goregaon which have been taken on a leave and license basis from associate firms/group companies.

The Company's main activities are importing rough diamonds, cutting and polishing them and exporting of cut and polished diamonds. The Company is carrying out its processing activities from its facilities at Goregaon, Mumbai; Mandvi and Gopipura in Surat & Thala (Chikhli) in Gujarat. It also gets work done on a job work basis from contractors in Mumbai and Surat.

1990

In view of the growing business, both families mutually agreed to amicably separate the business and continue their business in diamonds. The Kothari family continued business under the name of P. D. Kothari & Co. and Asian Star Company has since established itself as a diamond processor engaged in the import of rough diamonds and the export of cut and polished diamonds.

1991

The Company has obtained NOC/Clearance Orders from the Pollution Control Board of Gujarat for the Surat facility vide registration No. 3500, dated 4th October, from the Mandvi Gram Panchayat for the facility at Mandvi.

The Company is Two Times Award winder for highest exports from Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council under the Non-DTC category for the year 1991-92 and 1992-93.

The Company is a recipient of National Export Award and Certificates of Merit from Ministry of Commerce for highest growth in exports in the year 1991-92 and 1993-94 respectively.

1993

However in January, on the basis of the Company's performance, DTC reconfirmed the Company as a "Sightholder".

1994

In four year it has secured 31st position of among the top 100 exporters (10th position in the diamond industry) in India for the year according to the report by Federation of Indian Export Organisation, New Delhi, dated September 18, 1995.

1995

The Company is formed by registration of the Partnership firm previously known as Asian Star Company into a Limited Company under Part IX of the Act on March 2, and was granted Certificate of Commencement on 7th March.

The Company has entered into contract with M/s. Rahil Agencies to process rough diamonds at its factories situated at Goregaon, Chikhli (Valsad) and Mandvi (Surat) as per agreements dated 1st February, for a period of five years.

The Company was registered as a public limited company under part IX of the Companies Act on 2nd March.

1996

 The Company entered the Capital Market with a Maiden Public Issue of 26,70,000 equity shares of Rs. 10/- each at a premium of Rs. 65/- per share, which was opened for Public subscription on 13th May.

1997

Indian Diamond Industry had witnessed a bad patch during last year as a result of uncertain market conditions created by breaking up of single channel supply, excessive supply in open market, high rate of interest on Post Shipment finance by Banks.

- The Branch office of the Company at Hong Kong and New York was closed during the year. With due approval of RBI and Government of India a wholly owned Subsidiary Company under the name of ASIAN STAR COMPANY LIMITED with a paid-up capital of US$ 500000/- (Rs. 17875000/- approx.) was incorporated at New York, U.S.A.

1998

1,06,71,200 No. of Equity Shares of Rs. 10/- each of the Company listed on Ahmedabad Stock Exchange be delisted on and from 1st April 1999.

The Company needs additional funds to meet the working capital it is therefore proposed to increase the limits as stipulated in the resolution.

During the year under review Indian Diamond Industry has witnessed a modest rise of 6% over the previous year despite the recession in most consuming centers as well as financial crisis in the Far East Countries.

The company has been awarded ISO : 9002 certification by RWTUV, ESSEN, West Germany.

Public Issue Date             : 13/05/1996

Book Closure Start Date  : 15/09/2010

Book Closure End Date   :  21/09/2010

Listing Price                     :  Rs.75

Face Value                        : 10.0

BSE Code                         : 531847

BSE Group                       : B

Life time high                   : Rs.1999    1-Oct-09

Life time Low                   : Rs.75        24-Jul-96

Year	Month	Dividend (%)
2010	May	20     133*2=266
2009	Aug	20     133*2=266.00
2008	Jun	20     133*2=266.00
2007	Jun	20     133*2=266.00
2006	Jul	20     133*2=266.00
2005	Jul	20     133*2=266.00
2004	Jun	20     133*2=266.00
2003	Jun	40     133*4=266.00
2002	Jun	10     133*1=133.00
2001	Jun	15     133*1.5=199.5
2000	Mar	75     133*7.5=997.5
1999	Aug	18     133*1.8=239.4
1998	Jul	8       133*0.8=106.4
1997	Nov	10     133*1.0=133.0
1997	Jul	15     133*1.5=199.5

                       Total = 3870.30

Share holding

(in %)   Dec-10            Sep-10 Jun-10

Promoter          74.97   74.97   74.97

FII       0.03     0.03     0.04

DII       4.47     4.47     4.46

Others  20.53   20.53   20.53

Total    100.00 100.00 100.00

Share Return:

Assumed investment: Rs.10000.

Investment initiated on 1996.

Rs. 10000 worth of shares: 133(Per share Rs.185, 10000/75=133)

As on  28 Feb 2011  return of investment Rs.1073

(as on 28 Feb 2011 Market price)*133shares=142709+3870.30(dividend)=146579.30.

Gold Return:

Same time Rs.10000 investment in gold.

As on 1996 gold price is Rs. 35.52per grm, Rs.10000 worth of gold:281.5(Per grm gold 32.43,10000/35.52=281.5grm rounded of 281)

Return as on  2011 gold price is 1900 per grm (as on feb 2011 market gold price 1900 Per grm)281grm*1900=533900.

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